Monday, 7 September 2009

Bad news, but better than what we where expecting

The statistical office of Cyprus has just released the 2nd quarter GDP estimate for 2009. The results are better than the flash (i.e. incomplete) estimate, with the fall in constant terms being less than expected at -0.7%. The positive news is that the "new powerhouse industries" of international finance and services sector is still growing, albeit at a slower rate.

Although the results could be worse they are still bad:
1) Q3 is traditionally the strongest in terms of output growth containing the majority of the summer tourist season - indication show that it will be much worse than q2.
2) this is estimates in constant price terms - yet prices fell by -1.1%. Thus in constant prices (i.e. in the way it affects people's lives) the drop is much more significant.
3) It is clear that the sector hit (Tourism, Construction, Transport, restaurants) have a much higher share of total employment that the sectors that are still growing - thus further lay-offs will be expected.

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