Friday, 1 February 2008

A collaborative work on Cyrpiot Agriculture - Presented at athens in 2006. Enjoy!

This is a paper written with my father that was presented at the Athens Institute of Education and Research In December 2006. Anyone interested can email me and i will send them a copy of the paper. Please site as Alexander Apostolides and Costas Apostolides "Introducing Cyprus in the Economic Debate: The resilience of Cypriot Agriculture in the 20th Century, 1921 - 2000" 4th International Confere on History, Athens 28 - 31 December 2006.

Introducing Cyprus in the Economic Debate: the Resilience of Cypriot Agriculture in the 20th century, 1921 – 2000.

Alexander Apostolides

PhD Student

Department of Economic History

London School of Economics

a.apostolides@lse.ac.uk

Costas Apostolides

Development Economist, Chairman

EMS Economic Management Consulting (Cyprus) ltd

costas.a@highwaycommunications.com

Abstract

This paper is a preliminary introduction of Cyprus in the realm of economic history, concentrating on the role of the agricultural sector in the economy. It is part of an ongoing effort to estimate the gross domestic product of Cyprus for the period 1921 -1939. Unlike Greece, which largely relied on exports of raisins and tobacco, there was greater diversification of products in Cyprus. This resulted in cyclical changes of the sectors’ most dynamic products: cereals, carobs, citrus fruits, vegetables and potatoes exhibit different periods of rapid growth and relative decline. The agricultural sector was in crisis until the Second World War; the war was a positive stimulus for Cyprus, with agriculture diversifying into products of high regional demand such as citrus fruits, vegetables and tobacco. Despite gloomy assessments of underdevelopment, agriculture in the period 1950 – 1973 contributed to the island’s growth, maintaining or increasing its share of a rapidly growing GDP throughout the period. The invasion of 1974 afflicted agriculture more than any other sector of the economy; it resulted to fundamental changes in the sectors’ structure as well as a rapid decline in its relative importance in the economy.

Introducing Cyprus in the Economic Debate: the Resilience of Cypriot Agriculture in the 20th century 1921 -2000

Anyone who writes about farming is likely to be writing critically of the way the farming is carried out… government reports are aimed at seeking weaknesses and correcting them: the speeches and writings of political leaders… are aimed at stressing the effect of bad weather or wrong policy; and even the farmer themselves are usually writing with the idea of securing easier credit or better prices and therefore paint the gloomiest possible picture. With such a background one is apt to overlook the big achievements of the Cyprus Farmer, who in the face of great climatic and political handicaps has for many centuries supported a considerable population and has established a remarkable range of products.

D. A. Percival, Superintendent of the Census 1946 p.59

Introduction

This paper is an attempt to provide longer term perspective of Cypriot agricultural development than previously attempted. It is part of an ongoing effort to estimate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period 1921 – 1939. The paper has omitted the livestock sector due to data constraints; research for this sector is ongoing and it will be introduced at a latter date.

Over the period 1921 – 2000 agriculture in Cyprus remained an important sector of the economy. Even though its importance in terms of economic activity has declined, it was significant in terms of output and employment for most of the period, and has been more extensively researched. Most accounts of Cypriot agriculture focused on respective contemporary problems of the sector resulting in a general perception of underdevelopment and backwardness[1].

Perhaps the most pessimistic portrayal of Cypriot agricultural prospects was provided by Mayer, writing around the time of the declaration of independence in 1960[2]. Mayer dramatically stated that Cyprus will contain a million people, a fact best appreciated by those who have lived on an aircraft carrier. There is not enough land... the island has run out of cultivable soil”. According to Mayer part of the reason for the deterioration of agricultural land was the “destructive farming practices of the Cypriot farmer” who “has declined to embrace the simplest changes upon which soil improvement and diversified farming rest”[3].

Although Mayer’s comments are unusual in their severity, there was a consensus by contemporary writers that Cypriot agriculture was pivotal to future development. The sector was underperforming: the low productivity of agricultural workers, the lack of an adequate system of agricultural credit, the low rate of capital accumulation, and the fragmented system of land tenure were emphasized as the main problems. The fact that the island was a net importer of food and that its agricultural products were not internationally competitive further highlighted how the agricultural sector was inhibiting the development of Cyprus[4]. Such poor performance was not just attributed to manmade problems: climatic conditions aggravated the existing malaise. Rainfall statistics over the 80 year period show that the probability of normal, high or low rainfall is approximately equal and that the effects of low rainfall (drought) on agricultural productivity can be significant[5].

Percival ‘s comment in the 1946 agricultural census encapsulates that the practical focus of the literature resulted in concentrating on the problems of agriculture; this evaluation of the agricultural sector of Cyprus over an eighty year period allows a more optimistic assessment of its contribution to the economy as a whole.

The paper attempts to merge existing published data on agriculture, which is scattered and segmented, and standardize them throughout the eighty year period in order to evaluate the sectors’ performance. Colonial period and early independence data are standardized as far as possible to current weights and practices. However both data availability and reliability deteriorate as one moves further back in time. Periods of particularly poor data availability are in 1921 – 1931 (when less data was published), and 1955 – 1960 (a period of an anti-colonial struggle and communal strife known as “the emergency”).

The paper is divided in four distinct time periods, bounded by important events in the history of Cypriot agriculture:

· The interwar period (1921 – 1938)

· The Second World War and Independence (1944 – 1960)

· The period of rapid economic growth and invasion (1960 – 1974)

· The period of recovery, and relative decline (1975 – 2000)

Whenever possible, comparisons will be made of results with neighboring Greece in order to contextualize the findings for Cyprus.

Overview

Figure 1 compares the share of Agriculture in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in both Cyprus and Greece for the period 1921 -2000. It stipulates that by 1950 (for which the first national account figures for Cyprus are available) Cypriot agriculture was less important in terms of value added share than for Greece, and remained so for the majority of the period[6]. Thus already by 1950 the importance of the Cypriot agricultural sector had lost its prominence in terms of output. This was something that was understood by Thorp, who noted that “Looking at the pattern of the Cypriot economy and comparing it with other non-industrial countries, agriculture makes less than the usual contribution”[7]. Mayer’s concern that the Cypriot population growth would outstrip the ability of the agricultural sector to maintain its supply of foodstuff did not materialize; increased outward migration led to lower than expected population growth, while the growth of agricultural production was rapid. Of particular interest is the period 1960 – 1972: the Cypriot GDP (in 1967 constant prices) grew at an annual rate of 7.12%, while the agricultural sector grew by 7.89%, thereby increasing the share of its contribution to gross domestic production. Figure 3 indicates these changes occurred as Cypriot GNP per capita was substantially increased; GNP per capita in Cyprus from 1960 – 2001 increased by a factor of 6.5. Figure 3 also indicates the negative effects of intercommunal violence (1963) and the Turkish invasion (1974); both caused absolute falls of the GNP per capita level.

Estimates of the output share of agriculture for the period 1921 – 1949 do not exist, but an indication of the importance of agriculture for the period is possible by comparing the proportion of actively employed population in agriculture as provided by Figure 2[8]. By 1946 the proportion of male and total active population in agriculture in Cyprus was lower than for Greece in 1951. Before the Second World War, male participation ratios for Cyprus are similar to Greece’s, possibly indicating structural change during the war. Christodoulou estimated that 60% of the population were dependent on agriculture for their income in 1961; however the estimate is too high since it includes manufacturing and service industries dependent on agricultural inputs, as well as part-time farmers[9]. There is a possibility that men previously working in agriculture in the period 1950 – 1965 moved to the rapidly growing copper mining sector, leaving women to toil the fields – but the lack of a breakdown of the economically active population by sex prevents corroboration. It is telling that at the same time agriculture ceased to constitute the largest share of exports: in 1958, 58% of Cyprus exports were mineral exports, while agriculture accounted for just 33% of total exports[10].

Despite the above Cyprus has been considered as a primarily agricultural country throughout the first half of the 20th century, though shares of employment and output indicate a movement away from agriculture earlier in the 1930s and 1940s. The sectors’ relative importance in terms of GDP prior to 1950 remains unknown.

Section 1. The Interwar Years: 1921 – 1939

The period was difficult for Mediterranean countries; most of the countries in the Eastern Mediterranean failed to close the income gap that existed with Western Europe. Economic conditions were not conducive for accelerated growth for Southern European countries; most states were suffering a backlog of problems that made rapid development difficult, further exacerbated by the negative effects of the First World War, the slow growth of international trade and a movement of terms of trade against agricultural producers[11].

Cyprus, a de facto British colony since 1878, was officially annexed by Britain in 1914, and declared a crown colony in 1925[12]. Cypriot agriculture was dominated by small peasant holders, who held scattered small landholdings. An increased demand for agricultural products during First World War (especially for grain and fodder crops) led to an expansion of the cultivated area of such corps in Cyprus. The reduction of demand due to demobilization, combined with the significant fall in prices for such products during the 1921 recession, resulted in severe distress for agricultural producers in Cyprus; there was a significant increase of forced sales of farmland due to debt default[13]. The issue of defaulted agricultural debt that was exacerbated in 1921 plagued Cypriot agriculture throughout the interwar period; Sir Oakden estimated in 1934 that the rural population was in debt of over two million sterling or approximately £7 sterling per person living in the rural area[14]. The issue of agricultural debt was not comprehensibly resolved until the beginning of the Second World War[15].

The steep drop in prices after the First World War was particularly serious for farmers in the plains and coastal drylands, who where primarily cultivators of grain (mainly wheat and barley). For farmers that were reliant on grain for the majority of their income the interwar period was one of compounded distress; the end of the 1921 recession found such farmers heavily in debt, facing stiff competition from imported flour[16].

The most important products in the interwar period were wheat, barley and carobs, while the cultivation of tobacco, cotton and flax were encouraged by the colonial authorities. A volume index for the eighty year period is currently compiled; however a compilation of an index of production (without corresponding price data, which is currently unavailable) allows us a partial analysis of trends of agricultural production. The volume index indicates that in the majority of the 13 products with a complete series for the period 1921 -1938, four had an overall decrease (wheat, barley, cheese, wool). Figure 5 exhibits the volume indexes of 6 major products.

This decrease of output of wheat and barley are particularly important since the total market value (in current prices) of the combined wheat and barley production dropped by over 39% between 1920 – 1924 and 1930 – 1934, and did not fully recover to its pre-1924 level by 1939. Despite a slight drop in acreage of both grains, wheat and barley remained the most significant crops in terms of output and acreage: in 1938 they still constituted 53% of total cultivated area[17].

The years 1931 – 1932 must have been particularly difficult for Cypriot grain farmers; the steep drop in grain prices during the world depression coincided with a serious drought in Cyprus. Farmers did substitute wheat and barley for other crops: the total cultivable area in the period 1929 to 1932 increased by 20.8%, while the cultivated area for wheat and barley fell by 13.7%. However for the large Mesaoria plain no adequate substitutes for wheat and barley existed due to the lack of sufficient aquifers; thus for Mesaoria farmers the combination of lower prices and lower yields must have had severe effects on their income[18]. Results for wheat indicate that the value of output declined (in 1938 constant prices) by 47.8% in the period 1929 - 1932.

Contemporary reports confirm the dire situation. Both Surridge and Sir Oakden in 1930 and 1934 respectively highlighted that the main burden of the falling product prices fell on the wheat farmer[19]. However in some areas of Cyprus, especially in the districts of Limassol and Paphos, the main agricultural activity was viniculture, not grain cultivation. In these Districts viniculture constituted 41% of total acreage in 1932. For the producers of the Districts Limassol and Paphos grain production was less important; work is currently undertaken to estimate wine, spirit, raisins and table grape production in order to estimate the gross output of vine products.

Of particular importance for Cyprus was the swansong of the export of carobs that took place in this period. Carobs were the major staple export of Cyprus since 1896 and it was the largest single exported agricultural item by value; the crop was exported almost to its entirety. In the interwar period, carobs were still important in terms of output, despite output being reduced by 25.1% in the period by the end of the 1920s. Although it remained an important export crop, the export of carobs never recovered its previous relative economic importance in the Cypriot Economy as a whole.

The expansion of tobacco is important in the period. A rapid increase of both the area cultivated and output produced occurred particularly towards the end of the 1920s. However output was very volatile and subject to violent swings. In 1921 volume of output was at 38.3% of the 1938 level; by 1934 volume of output was 44 times larger than 1938; limited access to the main tobacco export markets due to increased protectionism in major markets led to its decline in 1938. However, Cyprus during the interwar period never reached the level of dependence on tobacco production that afflicted Greece. Despite the rapid expansion of acreage during this period, tobacco cultivation in Cyprus did not surpassed 1% of total recorded acreage.

Likewise crops that were actively promoted as export staples by the Colonial authorities did not dominate agricultural production. Cotton production only constituted a maximum 4.5% of the area cultivated throughout the period and exhibited a cyclical output related to rainfall conditions. Flax and Hemp remained very small and localized industries; output remained low and exports were insignificant.

Figure 4 is a comparison of wheat and barley yields of Cyprus and Greece for the period. Cyprus has a higher yield than the average of Greece, except for periods of drought in Cyprus, and towards the end of the period in 1937 – 1938, when the Greek yields of wheat (and barley to a lesser degree) are much higher, possibly due to preferential policies established by Greece in order to be less dependent on imported grain[20]. Thus it is unclear whether the Cypriot grain farmer had a worse time than his Greek peer during the interwar period.

Section 2. The Second World War and Run up to Independence 1940 - 1959

In this period the Cypriot economy received a tremendous boost due to the Second World War. A shortage of food and raw materials in the Middle East caused by the disruption, combined with increased demand stimulated by the North African front, provided a stimulus for Cyprus. The Second World War dramatically increased the strategic importance of the island, and led to significant investment and expenditure by the Colonial authorities.

During the war years 1939-1945 the Cyprus economy was integrated into the wartime economic strategy of the Middle East Supply Centre, the primary aims of which were to minimize the use of shipping for civilian goods, to minimize hardship on populations caused by the reduction in overseas imports, and to utilize regional sources of goods for the war effort[21]. The effect was a general rise in prices: average prices during the 1940 - 1945 were higher for wheat (80%), barley (176%), tobacco (294%), potatoes (66%), carobs (61%), olives (297%), and grapes (298%). However production suffered due to the combination of low rainfall and the lack of previously imported agricultural inputs (especially chemical fertilizers). Output of barley and wheat in 1944, which was greatly dependent on chemical fertilizers, fell by 56% and 45% compared to 1938, despite a slight increase of the total area cultivated Out of 30 products, only citrus fruit, tobacco, potatoes, flax fibre, haricot beans, tomatoes, taro (kolokassi) and sponges show higher levels of output than in 1938. The increase in most of these products was due to the co-ordination of regional demand by the Middle East Supply Centre, allowing Cyprus access to the burgeoning wartime demand for such products and stimulating industries based on domestic agricultural inputs (especially food processing and alcohol production).

Thus the increase in agricultural production was more a phenomenon of the latter stages of the war, when shortages of imported agricultural inputs eased. In this period wheat production increased much faster than barley, perhaps due to the existence of a 32% price gap established by government subsidization polices. Onions exhibited a 10% increase in 1946, despite production of onions dropping by 49% of their 1938 output in 1944. Potatoes, unlike barley and wheat, show an increase of output both in 1944 and 1946, increasing output by 28% and 54.6% respectively of the 1938 level. The general increase in output also affected less important products; by far the largest increase in output was of aniseed that grew by 3178% during the period 1937 to 1946, possibly due to the increased demand for spirits.

The post war development of agriculture was rapid; the GDP share of agriculture grew slightly less than the rest of the economy at 4.6% per annum. The economy as a whole exhibited a faster rate of growth than agriculture for the first half of the 1950s; but economic conditions deteriorated during the Emergency of 1955 to 1959.

During this period the co-operative movement reached its maturity: Co-operatives for credit, retail trade, and marketing managed to break the dependence of agricultural producers on money lenders. Agricultural loans more than tripled and deposits grew five-fold[22]. Marketing co-operatives were established for cherries, lemons, apricots and cereals and a large co-operative winery was established. By 1960 co-operative societies were marketing 50% of the total agricultural market production. The growth of the co-operative movement is seen as correcting the institutional infrastructure to allow faster growth in agriculture in this period[23]. An additional factor in this progress was a ten year development plan implemented between 1946 and 1956. It included provision for electricity, roads, communications, health and water supply which led to significant increases in agricultural productivity, especially due to irrigation works that allowed an expansion of citrus output and deciduous fruits.

Products in high demand during the war expanded their output after its end; oranges and vegetables (especially tomatoes), as well as potatoes and tobacco increased their volume (and value) shares in total agricultural production. Potatoes became a significant export as well as the second largest item in terms of output after viniculture. Deciduous fruits, citrus and melons showed explosive growth, partly due to the development of new water resources.

Much of the expansion of the agricultural sector was in irrigated crops, and the perennially irrigated area accounted for 8.7% of the cultivated land in 1960, as against 6.5% in 1955.Citrus output in 1958 was ten times greater than in 1933, while productivity per acre was comparable to Israel[24]. Food processing industries produced 58% of industrial gross output, but these industries accounted for only about 4% of GDP.[25] Crop production and animal husbandry had a 60% - 70% value added as a proportion of gross output, as compared to only 20% for the economy as a whole. Thus agriculture in this period was not stagnating; it was largely keeping pace with the growth of the economy as a whole.

Section 3: Economic Catch-up, and Invasion 1960 -1974

Cyprus became independent in 1960, and arrangements were made for a technical team of United Nations experts to visit the island, undertake a survey of the situation and make recommendations for action. The mission concluded that “The Cyprus Economy…seemed to be running along a downhill and rather bumpy road”[26]. The UN experts considered agriculture the main driver for efforts to develop Cyprus, and most of their recommendations were included in the First Five Year Plan (1962-1966) produced approved by the government; it was followed up by the Second Five Year Plan (1967- 1971). In both these plans the Planning Bureau emphasized the important role of the private sector, which in conjunction with development expenditure by the public sector aiming at infrastructure, legal and administrative improvements encouraged economic development[27]. The plans envisaged a relatively open economy with a high dependence on imports, but with restricted international competition for the agricultural sector through plant and animal health inspection regulations, quotas and tariffs, and subsidies, especially for cereals and vines. Thus Cypriot agriculture was partially sheltered from competing with imported products within the domestic market, a process that was maintained until such protectionism became untenable due the 1994 GATT/WTO agreements and entry negotiations with the European Union (1998-2004).

Economic growth for the period up to 1973 was very rapid in real terms with low inflation. Rather surprisingly the agricultural sector matched this overall growth in GDP as shown in Figure 1. However agricultural productivity relative to other sectors was low; in 1960 agriculture contributed 17.6% of GDP (constant 1967 prices), while it still employed 44% of the labour force (Figure 2) partly due to part-time agricultural employment gradually becoming the norm. Crops under irrigation, which can increase the productivity per acre by a factor of eight, doubled. Fodder crops were expanded to meet the needs of the livestock sector; however by 1972 crop production was still the most important sub-sector producing 64% of the value added of agriculture. The period saw a rapid increase of exports; by 1972 the value of agricultural exports grew to a third of agricultural gross output. Almost all these exports were from crop production, the main items being potatoes, citrus, table grapes. In part these exports were encouraged by an ability to produce early potatoes and table grapes for the United Kingdom and consequently achieve high prices. As a consequence of this rapid growth by the agricultural sector within the fast growing economy, agriculture was able to maintain its share in economic activity, and encourage the growth of manufacturing both by creating demand and providing goods for processing.

The 1974 invasion and its aftermath created a very serious situation for the Cyrpiot economy as a whole and the agricultural sector in particular, which lost much of its resource base, as 37% of the islands’ area was occupied. Substantially developed agricultural areas such as the large irrigated areas of citrus groves in Morphou and Famagusta, and most of the red soil potato growing villages, fell within the occupied area. As a consequence of the subsequent occupation, the data published by the Republic of Cyprus refer only to the Government controlled area. The immediate effect was severe: total GDP fell by a third in real terms.[28] The economy as a whole recovered in terms of real GDP by 1977 but agricultural output did not recover until 1985. In terms of GDP share, agriculture has remained smaller than before 1974; its share of GDP fell from 18% in 1972 to 12.8% in 1977 and has been declining ever since (Figure 1). Some agricultural products never fully recovered, such as oranges, while others such as tomatoes, lemons, and grapefruits took about 10 years to do so. The occupation of parts of the Mesaoria plain resulted to a loss of traditional dryland grain production: This particularly affected wheat, which now constituted a very small part of the total agricultural product. The invasion caused displacement and unemployment; workers previously employed in agriculture in the occupied areas moved to other non-agricultural jobs as the economy recovered. As a result the proportion of gainfully employed persons in agriculture fell from 39% to 23%; most strikingly male employment declined to just 13% of the total gainfully employed population (Figure 2).

Section 4: Recovery, Growth and Relative Decline 1975 -2000

The period from 1977 into the 1980’s was one of continuous rapid economic growth. However agriculture output failed to expand as rapidly as the previous period despite the accelerating mechanization of the sector. From 1975 to 2000 the economy of Cyprus expanded rapidly by 6.4% at constant prices, but the agricultural sector grew at roughly half those rates. Agricultural exports that previously comprised a third of the sector’s output fell to 18% in 1981 and to 7% of in 2000.[29]

In the agricultural sector the emphasis was on resettling displaced farmers and expanding irrigation; by 1985 the level of agricultural production was on par to the level of production of 1972 (despite the loss in acreage). From 1975 onwards employment in agriculture fell at an average rate of 6% per year; by 2000 only 24,000 people were actively employed in agriculture with 75% of farmers having agriculture as a secondary occupation[30]. Relative productivity vis-à-vis the whole economy was still low; by 2000 the income differential widened to its 1975 level.

The application of Cyprus for accession to the European Union in 1998, presented a golden opportunity for the modernization and restructuring of the agricultural sector. The government negotiated terms allowing it to maintain subsidies at present levels, gradually adjusting them to the lower EU levels over a seven year period. What is clear from the EU accession process is that the role of agriculture will change, with greater emphasis on its environmental functions and agro-tourism, and that product subsidies will give way to subsidies aiming at improving efficiency and for the finance of more comprehensive rural development schemes.

Conclusion

Looking at the role of Cypriot agriculture in a longer timeframe allows us to have a more optimistic view of its contribution to the economy as a whole. Overall output has been growing; the Second World War and the invasion in 1974 transformed the role of agriculture within the Cyprus economy. Both changed the internal structure of the sector, as well as its contribution to the economy in terms of GDP share. The sector was positively contributing to the rapid economic growth, growing faster than the economy as a whole for the period 1960 to 1972 and facilitating the development of manufacturing industries. The invasion was a serious blow to agriculture since it reduced the available land and water resources. Thus agriculture after the invasion did not contribute to recovery in the way it was able to do so in the period 1960 – 1972.

The resilience of Cypriot agriculture lies mainly in the flexibility in capitalizing market and taste trends by altering its product mix. This resulted in cyclical changes of the most dynamic products: cereals, carobs, citrus fruits, vegetables and potatoes exhibit different periods of rapid growth and relative decline during the period. In the interwar period the effects of the falling prices of agricultural products, especially during the depression, were serious especially for dry land farmers mainly dependent on their income on grain; however the effects on wine growing areas of Limassol and Paphos were less marked. Over the period agriculture has played a significant role in economic development, but with the reduction of its resource base in 1974 it has declined in importance for the economy and now has to adjust to effects of the free market and the common agricultural policy of the European Union.

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[1] Lanitis, Nicos C, 1944. Rural Indebtedness and Agricultural co-operation in Cyprus Limassol; Thorp, Willard, L, 1961. Cyprus: Suggestions for a development programme. New York, United Nations

[2] Mayer A.J, 1959. Middle Eastern Capitalism: nine essays. Cambridge, Ma: Harvard University Press; Meyer A.J., with Vasilliou, S., 1962. The Economy of Cyprus. Cambridge, Ma: Harvard University Press

[3] Mayer, 1959. Middle Eastern Capitalism. pp.48 – 50. The population of the area controlled by the Republic of Cyprus in 2005 was estimated at 766.4 thousand; estimates of the Turkish Cypriot population are unreliable. However it is generally considered that the combined population is under one million

[4] Meyer with Vasilliou, 1962. Economy of Cyprus. p.35 -36; Lanitis, 1944. Rural Indebtedness; Thorp, 1961. Cyprus, p.4 , p.22

[5] Μετεωρολογική Υπηρεσία, 2006. Το Κλίμα της Κύπρου. Available from: http://www.moa.gov.cy/moa [accessed 22/12/2006] ; The effects of consecutive droughts are particularly serious as evidenced by the drop in yield per acre for all agricultural products for the period 1930 – 1932. Thorp estimated that the effect of one year of drought in 1960 led to the reduction of the yield of wheat and barley by 33% Thorp, 1961, Cyprus p.21

[6] Estimates for Greece in 1921, 1929 and 1938 are based on the historical national accounts estimates of Kostelenos, G. C., 1995. Money and Output in Modern Greece: 1858-1938. Athens: Kepe

[7] Thorp, 1961. Cyprus, p.3

[8] Male participation in the economically active population was used for earlier periods as the censuses of 1921 to 1946 seriously underestimate female employment in the sector

[9] Thorp, 1961. Cyprus, p.19

[10] Source: Republic of Cyprus, 1980. Statistical Pocket Book No.2 The Cyprus Economy in Figures (1950 - 1978). Nicosia: Statistics and Research Department

[11] Recent research for the Mandate of Palestine, Turkey and Greece indicate that overall growth was positive for the period; Kostis, Kostantine P., & Petmetzas, Socrates D., 2003. Growth and Stagnation in the Greek Economy 1830 – 1940. Available from: http://www.ims.forth.gr/ims/history_studies/agrotiki_oikonomia/GreekEconomy.pdf

[accessed 12/12/05]; Pamuk S. & Williamson J. (eds.), 2000. The Mediterranean Response to Globalisation. New York; Routledge; Pamuk, S., 2006. Estimating Economic Growth in the Middle East since 1820. Journal of Economic History 66(3), pp.809 – 827; for a review of the interwar economic conditions see Feinstein, C. H. , Temin, P. , Toniolo, G, 1997. The European Economy Between the Wars. Oxford: Oxford University Press; Aldcroft, D. H., 1997. Studies in the Interwar European Economy. Aldershot: Ashgate

[12] FO 371/123881, Public Records Office, Cyprus a Publication of the Central Office Information, 8 April 1954

[13] Georghallides, G. S., 1979. A Political and Administrative History of Cyprus. Nicosia: Cyprus Research Centre

[14] Surridge calculated in 1930 that the debt to rural farmers was on average of £35 per person; this is significantly higher than Sir Oakden’s estimate four years latter. Surridge, B. J., 1930. A Survey of Rural Life in Cyprus. Nicosia: Government Printing Office p.40; Oakden, Sir R., 1935. Report on the Finances and Economic Resources of Cyprus. London, Crown Agents for the Colonies

[15] Lanitis, 1944. Rural Indebtedness, p.29

[16] Percival, D. A., 1947. Cyprus Census of Population and Agriculture: Reports and Tables. Nicosia: Government Printing Office p.93

[17] Source: Cyprus, 1938, Statistical Blue Book, Nicosia, GPO

[18] The Morphou and Famagusta aquifers on the Mesaoria plain were essentially discovered and developed after the Second World War

[19] Surridge, B. J., 1930. A Survey of Rural Life; Oakden, Sir R., 1935. Report on the Finances

[20]Freris, A. F., 1986. The Greek Economy in the Twentieth Century. London: Groom Helm; Mazower, 1991. Greece and the Interwar Economic Crisis. Oxford: Clarendon Press; Κρεμμυδάς, Β., 1999. Εισαγωγή στη Νεοελληνική Οικονομική Ιστορία.. Αθήνα: Τυποθήτω

[21] Willmington, 1971. Middle East Supply Centre. Albany: State University of New York Press

[22] Phylatkis, Kate, 1995, The Banking System of Cyprus, London, Macmillan

[23] Meyer with Vasilliou, 1962. Economy of Cyprus, p.32

[24] Thorp, 1961. Cyprus, p.19

[25] Vassiliou, S., 1959. Input – Output Analysis of the Economy of Cyprus.

[26] Thorp, 1961. Cyprus , p.5

[27] Republic of Cyprus, 1967. Second Five year plan. Nicosia, Planning Bureau

[28] Source: Republic of Cyprus, 1997 - 2000. Statistical Abstract Nicosia: Statistical Service; It must be noted that GDP is a poor indicator for such shocks as it is a measure of output (thus flow), and not measure of stock of wealth. Undoubtedly the invasion reduced the economic wealth that is not captured in the GDP estimate. Lequiller, François and Blades, Dereck, 2006, Understanding National Accounts. France , OECD p.38

[29] Source: Republic of Cyprus, Agricultural Statistics, 2000, Nicosia

[30] Antoniades & Papayiannis, 2001 Part-time Farming in Cyprus. Nicosia: Agricultural Research Institute












1 comment:

Middle and Near East said...

Can you please email me a copy of your father's very good paper.

Stavros Stavridis

braybrook007@yahoo.com